Editor / 12 March 2010 Free Bet View Market

"Those expecting French tries early on should take a deep breath before wading in. Of Italy’s three games of this campaign, two have featured a try-less first half..."

The focus for punters on Sunday afternoon's match between France and Italy will be points and tries - lots of them. Indeed, Betfair deem it necessary to open a second 'Winning Margin' market, catering for those confident enough to back a France trouncing by up to and including 40pts or more.

Italy come into the match after a 4pt win over Scotland and a decent crack at England. The news of Mathieu Bastareaud's exclusion must give the Italian backs a confidence boost but Italy's main hope of silencing the money buyers has to be slowing the game down at the breakdown, something they have been penalised for in previous fixtures. They need to turn indiscipline into crafty, old fashioned rugby. To do so, they must keep the ball away from the French backs and take them on up front. Somewhat unsurprisingly, Mauro Bergamasco's own performance on Sunday is likely to have a bearing on how successful such a tactic, and Italian performance, might be. If Castrogiovanni is again at the coalface, France can expect tough resistance from the Azzurri front five.

Admittedly, three times in the last 10 years France have scored over 50 points against Sunday's opponents, yet interestingly each occasion was away from home at the Stadio Flaminio. Back in Paris over the same time period, France's average winning margin over their Italian counterparts has been just over 18 points. Whilst showing sporadic signs of a technically sound team, France have been flattered in their victories over both Ireland and Wales. Italy have scored points previously in Paris and I'm backing them to do so again and come out on top with a 24.5 head start at [1.9].

Those expecting French tries early on should take a deep breath before wading in. Of Italy's three games of this campaign, two have featured a try-less first half with only the match at Croke Park boasting a Heaslip touchdown in the 15th minute. Opposing a try to be scored in the first 10 mins at [2.3] or below offers value.

I would normally avoid novelty bets like the plague but there's value in a small play on 'Italy Penalty' at [4.0] in the first scoring play market. If France are penalised first anywhere in their half early on, Italy will surely kick for goal.

Recommended bets:

2pts Back Italy +25.5 - [1.9]
1pt Lay 0-10 Mins, Time OF First Try - [2.3]
0.25 pts Back Italy Penalty, First Scoring Play - [4]