Geoffrey Riddle / 12 February 2010 Free Bet View Market

"England's victory over Wales masks numerous issues that are still to be addressed by Johnson and his coaching team. They continue to leak the bulk of their points in the second half which suggests fitness or concentration issues."

Nick Mallett, the effusive coach of Italy, believes that his squad is "fifteen to 20 points off the top teams in the world." It is hard to argue with the South African.

Despite losing seven line-outs to Ireland last weekend, and spending huge chunks of the match camped in their own 22, Italy came away with an 18-point defeat to the Grand Slam holders. That gutsy performance is not an isolated effort, either. The Tri-Nations sides all had a pop at the Azzurri in 2009, with Australia's 23-point win in Canberra the largest margin of defeat that Mallet had to stomach. In fact, at home during the autumn, Italy restricted New Zealand to a 14-point success, which is the points differential that the Betfair handicappers have established between Sunday's teams. It looks a tall order for England, who only beat the Italians by 25 points at Twickenham last year thanks to a painful display by Mauro Bergamasco, who was drafted in unsuccessfully at scrum-half.

Last weekend success over Wales was built as much on hard work as it was on luck. Alun Wyn Jones's yellow card gifted Martin Johnson's side 17 unanswered points. Of England's three tries, only Danny Care's mazy run had anything to do with skill. Both of James Haskell's tries involved mitigating circumstances. England showed limited ambition for the flanker's first try. They preferred to hammer away at the depleted Welsh pack for five minutes before Haskell flopped over. England's second was initiated by a fortuitous Delon Armitage interception.

The victory masks numerous issues that are still to be addressed by Johnson and his coaching team. They continue to leak the bulk of their points in the second half which suggests fitness or concentration issues. The ball is painfully slow, too, so much so that critics continue to point the finger at Jonny Wilkinson for playing too deep in attack. Even the best fly-halves would struggle to play flat on the gain line with such sluggish ball, which allows defenders to line up in anticipation of smashing the No.10 to smithereens. The likes of Stuart Barnes would certainly have had no chance in such circumstances, even on their best form. Wilkinson may well be playing too deep and kicking away too much possession for his own good but it is based largely on the need to create time on poor-quality ball.

Johnson harbours justified hopes that Riki Flutey will come to Wilkinson's aid at inside-centre now that he has recovered from the shoulder injury he sustained on the Lions tour and the dead leg he endured from a Courtney Lawes challenge last week. Flutey is a wonderful player, and his distribution skills and vision are up there with the best centres in the world. But the Brive man has played just 384 minutes of rugby since the Lions tour. In contrast, Armitage has turned out seven times for London Irish on his journey back from injury, and he was largely anonymous against the Welsh. International rugby is a testing and brutal environment, and it remains to be seen whether Flutey can simply slot back in and galvanise England's three-quarters at the first time of asking.

In the plus column for Johnson is that Italy's try last weekend was equally fortuitous. Kaine Robertson was given a gilt-edged charge-down opportunity and took it. The fact that it was Robertson's second try in just 19 Tests goes some way to show how blunt Italy's attacking options have become as Mallett attempts to shut the Azzurri flood gates. In Italy's last 13 games, they have scored just seven tries, and two of those were in the 24-6 rout of Samoa.

This is going to be a chronically dull encounter to watch, and will only be spiced up marginally by having a wager on it. Quite simply, I will be astounded if the total points make-up exceeds Betfair's 42.5-point level. Italy's last seven games have featured the four best teams in the world as well as Samoa, all of whom boast a far more potent attacking threat than England. Just one of those seven games featured more than 42.5 points. Going under that level looks one of the investments of the weekend.