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Six Nations betting tips for Ireland v France
Cormac O'Keefe / 11 February 2010 Free Bet View Market
Betfair punters make France the match favourites at 1.52
"O' Gara's experience and ability to control the game is crucial and he seems to have re-discovered his old confidence after the nightmarish end to his Lions tour."
If Ireland can get off to a good start, keep the crowd quiet and get close to parity in the front row, then I feel they have a great chance of recording only their third win in Paris since 1952 and should at the very least win with the aid of a [5.5] point handicap. In the last two matches Ireland have gifted France huge early leads, which they nearly overhauled with impressive comebacks. In ending Perpignan's 23-match unbeaten run at home Munster showed that if you get ahead of a French team the crowd can get on their backs and they can lose interest. Ireland's chances have been boosted by the return of Stephen Ferris.
Keith Earls will provide a lot more pace and incision than Andrew Trimble although defensively he may leave Ireland a bit more vulnerable. If Kidney was in any doubt about the merit of having such pace then the way that an ordinary Scotland side carved France open on a number of occasions surely made his mind up. Brian O' Driscoll made his name with a hat-trick in Paris a decade ago in Ireland's last win in the French capital and don't be surprised if Earls comes of age as I feel the game will be quite loose and perfectly suited for the Munster star. The price of [11.5] on Earls scoring the first try is worth a small investment.
Declan Kidney has given Ireland a license to play a more expansive game which will suit our talented set of backs. If Ireland are to win this match then one must hope that they have saved their expansive rugby and some set moves for this big challenge rather than showing their hand against Italy. Rob Kearney in particular went back into his shell and kicked the ball away too much rather than attacking at every sensible opportunity as he did so successfully when he shone on in the Lions tests. If he decides (or is instructed) to run the ball more then Keith Earls and Tommy Bowe could be in for productive days.
Kidney has kept faith with Ronan O' Gara who put in another impressive performance last week where he controlled the game brilliantly and didn't miss a kick at goal. O' Gara's experience and ability to control the game is crucial and he seems to have re-discovered his old confidence after the nightmarish end to his Lions tour. Ireland will hope that he doesn't have to tackle the giant French centre Mathieu Bastareaud too often!
France make two changes from the side that beat Scotland in a lacklustre match at Murrayfiled last week. Ireland's tormentor in chief, Vincent Clerc, who has scored seven tries in five appearances against us, returns in place of Aurelien Rougerie, whilst Alexis Palisson come in for Benjamin Fall on the opposite wing.
The French scrum is probably the strongest facet of their game and I'm sure Healy, Flannery, and Hayes could think of three nicer people to get up close and personal to on the day before Valentine's day in Paris than Domingo, Servat, and Mas! The Irish scrum will have to perform even better than they did against a very strong Italian scrum last week if Ireland are to get anything out of this game.
Recommended Bets
Ireland +5.5 @[1.92].
Ireland @[3.1].
First try - Keith Earls @[11.5].
