Sean Calvert / 22 May 2010 Free Bet View Market

"If it’s overcast and generally anything other than strong, bright
sunshine it’s hard to see anyone beating Nadal over five sets on clay,
as conditions would be too slow and in any case, he’s got a dream of a
start with the draw."

The sun has made an appearance for the first time this year and that must mean it's time for the French Open 2010, where the weather might well have a significant part to play in the destination of the men's singles trophy.

The draw has been made and the first thing to look for is anyone who can beat hot pot Rafa Nadal in his quarter and it's fair to say that he's not exactly been given a testing opening to Roland Garros 2010.

We saw last year with Robin Søderling that Rafa can be beaten on clay by players with big ground strokes, but those looking to get the Spaniard beaten should probably check the weather forecast before anything else.

If it's overcast and generally anything other than strong, bright sunshine it's hard to see anyone beating Nadal over five sets on clay, as conditions would be too slow and in any case, he's got a dream of a start with the draw.

An 18-year-old Frenchman with no experience on the main tour is first up for Nadal, followed by probably Horacio Zeballos and then the likes of Lleyton Hewitt or Jeremy Chardy.

A last-16 match with perhaps Ivan Ljubicic or Thomaz Bellucci doesn't look too frightening for Nadal unless the big Croat finds that Indian Wells form again from somewhere, which would make him one of the best outsiders around at [1000.0].

Ljubicic did reach the semis here in 2006 and beat Nicolas Almagro on the red dirt in Rome in straight sets last month, so unless he's struggling with injury again [1000] looks generous and a bit of an insult in all truth.

Nadal is seeded to meet compatriot Fernando Verdasco in the quarters, but the Madrid man has never gone better than the fourth round at Roland Garros and has Fernando Gonzalez (2-1 Gonzalez on clay) and Philipp Kohlschreiber (2-1 Kohlschrieber on clay) waiting for him first.

Almagro is also lurking in what is a tough section for Verdasco, who for my money will never win a Slam. He just doesn't have the mental toughness, as his thrashing by Nikolay Davydenko last year and by Nadal the year before proved, and he is readily overlooked as poor value at [80.0].

Nadal's semi final opponent is guesswork really, with the likes of David Ferrer, Juan Carlos Ferrero and Novak Djokovic being the picks from a poor-looking quarter. I would plump for Ferrer on current form.

In the other half, Roger Federer begins the defence of his title against meagre opposition in his quarter, with the likes of Feliciano Lopez, Stan Wawrinka and Gael Monfils being the most likely to nick a set from the Swiss maestro.

At least the adjacent section looks a little bit tougher, with Søderling, Albert Montanes and Ernests Gulbis being the main contenders to play Fed in the last eight and of these I would expect a repeat of last year's final.

Søderling has a terrible record against Federer, but at least the Swede did record a non-tour event win over the Swiss earlier this year, which might give him a bit of confidence.

Clay is of course the least favoured surface of the world number one and he should have been beaten by Tommy Haas and Juan Martin Del Potro here last year, so Søderling is still a good bet at around [130.0].

The last section is where we find Andy Murray, who has an eye-catching first round match against mercurial Frenchman Richard Gasquet and should he win that, which is questionable, he has the likes of Marcos Baghdatis, John Isner and Tomas Berdych in his section.

All decent players of course, but not really clay specialists and if Murray beats Gasquet, he should reach the last eight.

There the Scot would probably have to face Mikhail Youzhny, Tommy
Robredo or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who look the most likely from the
remainder of Murray's quarter.

Murray could have had a much tougher quarter than that, so don't write off his chances of making the semis again, should he get past Gasquet, which is a nightmare first round draw for most of the top 32.

So, Nadal at around [1.45] looks a very strong favourite indeed unless Paris gets hit by a heatwave for a fortnight, in which case the best outsiders would have to be Søderling at [130.0], Gonzalez at [300.0], Ljubicic at [1000.0] and Youzhny at [400.0].